See Glaeser, Scheinkman, and Shleifer (1995).Ĥ The main critique of this approach is model specification. At the time of publication, the most recent data available are for 2018.Ģ The national population growth rate was 24 percent during the previous 17-year period, 1983 to 2000.ģ Due to a high degree of within-in country labor mobility, population growth is a better measure of a region's economic performance, while per capita income growth tends to be the preferred measure for a country's economic performance. Louis MSA is a 15-county region that spans Missouri and Illinois. One might interpret this shortfall as indicating (i) the region has experienced declines in productivity or quality of life relative to other MSAs and, as a result, (ii) households believed they could achieve a higher quality of life by moving to a new location.ġ The St. This shortfall is not driven by unexpectedly slower net birth rates, but faster-than-expected migration out of the region. Louis MSA has grown at a rate less than half the rate forecasted by this model. In summary, over the past 18 years, the St. Weaker-than-forecasted population growth in Madison County (30,500 persons below forecast) and Monroe County (22,000 persons below forecast, not depicted) in Illinois are the second- and third-largest contributors to the shortfall. Louis County population 76,500 persons less than the forecast. Louis MSA's projected shortfall, with the actual St. Louis County makes up almost half of the St. The forecasted values are consistent with the observed population changes in St. This shortfall is likely due to relatively weaker economic performance than forecasted, leading to outward migration from the region.
Louis MSA was 174,900 persons below this forecast. Louis MSA, with a population of 2.98 million in 2018 and growth to 3 million by 2020 (see the top left panel of the Figure). The model's forecasts for 2000 to 2020 provide a counterfactual against which to compare the actual data: The model projected slow and steady growth of 11 percent for the St. 7 Their model can explain 75 percent of the variation in county population growth rates between 19. Counties with low density (i.e., non-MSA counties) and density above a certain threshold (i.e., high-density central city counties) grow more slowly. 5Įconomists Peter Linneman and Albert Saiz (2006) developed a model to forecast county population growth 6 using data such as the distribution of ages in a population, the presence of immigrants, climate, and population density. Louis City toward outlying suburbs continue previous trends. These significant shifts of population from St. The other 10 counties gained population, with the strongest growth in St. Five of the fifteen counties in the MSA experienced population declines between 20, with the largest absolute and percentage declines in St. Louis MSA and the five most populous counties. The table summarizes population data for the St.
Comparing actual population growth with forecasted growth may help identify the cause of the decline. 3 Or perhaps different demographics have produced differences in net birth rates. Louis MSA's growth slowdown may be due to economic reasons: Regional characteristics that impact business productivity (i.e., benefits to firms) or amenities (i.e., benefits to households) may have declined relative to other MSAs, leading to outward migration. So why has its growth tapered off since 2000? 2 Louis MSA hasn't always had stagnant population growth, however: In the last decade of the 20th century, its population grew much faster. That's less than the national growth rate of 19.9 percent over the same period and less than the rates of nearby, similar-sized MSAs, such as Kansas City (17.9 percent) and Nashville (39.2 percent).The St. Louis metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased from 2.68 million to 2.80 million, 1 a cumulative growth rate of 4.7 percent. From 2000 to 2018, the population of the St.
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